Epidemiologically speaking, we could not expect an obvious change between the end of a very tense month and the beginning of the next one, in a resurgence of great proportions like this one. It did not happen at the end of September 2020 and it is not happening now, in February.

The first seven days of the second month of the year speak for themselves: there are already 145 autochthonous cases and the sequence of confirmed patients by days (18, 4, 7, 39, 10, 28 and 39) invites us not to get our hopes up, not even when less than 10 cases are reported in a day. The next time, the statistic is “compensated”.

At the end of February 7, 1,509 positive cases for COVID-19 are accumulated in the province, by counting since March of last year. Of these, 96 correspond to the first stage, 808 to the second and 605 to the current one. Do you understand what the statistics show? This is not another resurgence, it could be The Resurgence, at the rate we are going.

It is true that the decision to further restrict the number of flights and isolate all travelers in state centers will eliminate one of the main sources of contagion, and the specific (imported) and general numbers will have to fall. However, the "damage" has already been done, today, the virus circulates in all municipalities, there is intrafamily and even community transmission in small nuclei. Let's add mobility, which continues to be very high for the current situation. We said it, the positive patients are connecting too many contacts, the chains are long.

For example, the 39 autochthonous cases reported this Sunday, that contributed to the surveillance no more and no less than 430 contacts. 11 people connected for every positive! If someone wanted evidence of the non-compliance with hygienic protocols, and the coming and going of people, consider yourself served with this data.

Eight people, of the 39 autochthonous cases of the day, are under 19 years old. This age segment continues to grow, despite the multiple calls to alert the family. You will forgive me (or not) the digression, but there were many who, when the school year had not yet stopped, asked, demanded and even railed at the provincial authorities for "continuing to wait." However, reality has shown that children and adolescents are infected at home, in their neighborhoods, since they are not going to school but are still on the streets.

So far this year, Morón (244 cases) and Ciego de Ávila (205 cases) are reaffirmed as the epicenters of the transmission, since Majagua (61 cases) seems to have controlled the contagion. Contrary to what happened in the previous outbreak, Chambas has diagnosed 14 positives (+11), Primero de Enero nine (+8) and Baraguá 21 (+5). There is a random, casual component, and we know it. But the reading that we can make of these numbers is that in these municipalities the surveillance has not been as in the first moment.

In a general, except for the provincial capital, the rest of the municipalities increase the number of confirmed with respect to the first resurgence, another expression of the complex and tense epidemiological situation in the province.

Let's not forget that we are making the comparison with a three-month period (September-November) in which three huge events happened in the Provincial Hospital, in the City and in Canaleta. With no events declared in 2021, the global numbers are scary.

If no events have been declared in the current stage, it is because, apparently, the methodology changed a bit, while considering that other territories have a more complicated picture. However, it would be enough to correlate two pieces of information to understand that we do have community transmission.

Let's take the municipality of Ciego de Ávila as an example. So far this year, it has diagnosed 25 imported cases, which, fair and square, could be the index cases of long transmission chains. As long as 205 autochthonous cases in the same period. If the numbers were proportional, we would say that each imported person infected eight contacts, although we already know that this is not what is happening.

Judging by the number of daily samples and the suspects and isolated contacts, the province could take another week of reports with two figures. At the end of February 7, 578 people remained as hospitalized patients (77 suspects, 370 contacts and 96 confirmed ones). In total, 121 patients remain active, in health institutions in Camagüey and Ciego de Ávila, and 148 focus controls.

Thus, there is still no reason to believe that the contagion curve will begin to fall. The first resurgence took us two and a half months to control. This one goes the same way.