The second outbreak of COVID-19 in Ciego de Ávila continues to generate records. After being the one with the largest number of accumulated autochthonous cases, it is also at the level of the most extensive in time.

At the end of March 31, three months have passed since the third wave and, judging by the sequence of the last week, we will still have a fourth month of infections that, possibly, will keep the province in an epidemic phase.

With the 11 positive cases reported on Wednesday, they total 2,184, of them 293 in the last 31 days.

After a "record-breaking" month of February, with 522 confirmed patients in just 28 days, March showed a decrease of more than 200 infected ones, a sign of an improvement in the health situation.
The March figure is, however, the fourth highest in just over a year of the pandemic. The other three are February, September, and January, in that order. Therefore, the statement that the current one is the regrowth of greater intensity is reaffirmed.
March did not have days without a positive report, while the highest accumulated cases occurred on days one, two and three with 22, 26 and 20, respectively. We could say that they were the "tail" of February, a short month, but fierce.
With the decline in autochthonous cases, the speed of contagion also decreased. If in February 18 people were diagnosed daily, on average, in March that number was cut in half. This decrease has allowed the province to maneuver in the management of patients. The main result is that no one has died and there have been very few seriously reported patients.
Although we do not have the statistics, the incidence of contagion among international travelers has also been lower. Of the total number of travelers (including Russian tourists, at the rate of a weekly flight of more than 400 passengers), only 20 of them have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.
The figure that continues to worry is the number of contacts declared for each positive. The average this month remained between 12 and 14, although there have been exceptions (negative ones) such as those of this Thursday: the cases reported in Majagua and Bolivia connected, each one, more than 20 people.
This is the reason to forecast a fourth month of infections. Despite the measures implemented in this stage of confrontation, mobility and little distancing point to the continuity of transmission, especially when the positive cases continue to be reported without a specific source of infection.
In March, the community focus controls continued to be the majority, however, the institutional ones “moved”. If in February we warned about three affected elderly homes, the institutional contagion in the third month of the year occurred in the northern cays. At the end of day 31st, 28 community members remain as active ones: (6 in Ciego de Ávila, 6 in Majagua, 4 in Chambas, 3 in Baraguá, 1 in Ciro Redondo, 3 in Morón, 2 in Primero de Enero, and Bolivia, Ciro Redondo, Venezuela and Florencia with one case each one); and three institutional cases (two from the northern cays related to hotel institutions and one from the Doctor Antonio Luaces Iraola Provincial Teaching Hospital (kitchen-dining room area).
Among the municipalities that reported the most cases in the month that ended are Morón and Ciego de Ávila, from the beginning, but territories with a lower incidence such as Baraguá (more than 20) and Primero de Enero (more than 18) were added so far.

Therefore, although an improvement is appreciated, the control is very vulnerable and can be undone in two by three. Vaccines are closer than three months ago, but not close enough to leave the evolution of the pandemic to chance.

March reported 200 fewer cases, yes, but 293 is still a high number. Let's not get too excited about the incidence rate of 23.3 per 100,000 inhabitants. In the last week there has been a slight rebound that, if maintained in the next few days, would erase the aspiration for a change of stage.

I say it, I repeat it and I repeat it again: this is not over.