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    Abdala against the records

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    Abdala contra los récords

    As a premonition and confirmation that the events of Sunday, July 11, will have epidemiological consequences in Cuba and in Ciego de Ávila, the data reported at the close of the day produces that feeling of cold metal on the spine: 458 autochthonous cases, six deaths, 383 focus controls and 865 active patients.  Records that no one would want to read.

    458 confirmed patients in one day are almost 200 cases more than the previous maximum for 24 hours, 266 reported ones only on Friday.  458 cases in a day are the prediction that tomorrow we could wake up with worse figures.  Nevertheless, the point is that they are not figures, they are people.

    People who die, like the six deceased individuals included in the report of the Ministry of Public Health this Monday.  Four men and two women, all over 65 years of age, parents, grandparents, our siblings, reactivating an alert that has never stopped being vigilant because, although the new variants of SARS-CoV-2 have run the risks towards younger ages, older adults remain highly vulnerable to a disease that not only attacks the respiratory tract, but also the cardiovascular system.

    Transmission, as has been said, continues in the communities, even when 18 focus controls remain active in institutions (mainly in Morón and the northern cays).  However, while the so-called epidemiological spiders of the institutional foci average six positive cases, the eight community events average 30, although exceptions such as the event in the town of Jicotea, with 81 cases, that of 8 Street in Vista Alegre (37) and La Costa, in Chambas, with 49, confirm the spreading contagion to the interior of the neighborhoods.

    This contagion has made the first 11 days of July not only the most lethal, with 15 reported deaths, but also the ones with the highest transmission so far in the fight against COVID-19, with 2,052 positives.  At this rate, the seventh month of the year will once again leave us defenseless against the terrible feeling of fear.

    All municipalities increase their indicators of confirmed cases and incidence rate in the last 15 days compared to the previous 15 days.  There is no place, where we can feel safe.  Because if 152 positives in Ciego de Ávila or 119 ones in Morón are overwhelming for these territories and the infrastructure they have, it is the same for Primero de Enero and Baraguá, with 29 and 41 cases.

    The important aspect here is not the number itself, but what it represents in the municipal context.  Let us say that, for Majagua, a town of just over 25,400 inhabitants, 131 patients in the last fortnight raise the incidence rate, which is the same as the risk of infection, to 511.6 per 100,000 people.  On the other hand, the municipality of Bolivia, with 99 cases in the same period and less than 16,000 inhabitants, has an incidence as high as that of the main municipality, which has reported an outrageous 1,032 confirmed cases.


    The organizational problems that have gravitated on the spread of the virus, the high mobility, the failure to comply with the indicated containment measures and the scarce isolation in the province, were exposed last Saturday during a meeting with the highest leaders in the country.

    The analysis warned of the dismantling here of work and control systems that allowed, in previous outbreaks, to control the contagion in less time than the current one is taking us, among them the active investigation at the entrance and exit of the Turiguanó-Cayo Coco causeway and in hotels.

    Likewise, it was indicated to continue expanding capacities in the healthcare centers, especially those for intensive surveillance and for the care of critically ill patients in intensive care.  Obviously, in an effort to reduce mortality, these capacities together with specialized transport and mechanical ventilation equipment will make a difference in the timely treatment of patients who progress unfavorably.

    However, confirmed numbers such as those of this Sunday, and in general those of the last few days, generate unflattering forecasts, while "consolidating" the option of keeping infected people at home.  Even though it is a protocol used internationally, after 15 months of confrontation, it is a paradigm shift that will have to be matured with carbide.

    Because if those who must stay at home and be treated there, with the supervision of a Primary Care that must be reinforced with human resources, do not comply with the established hygienic measures, the epidemic is not going to end.

    The good news this Monday is that the anti-COVID-19 vaccination with Abdala began in Ciego de Ávila; while Morón almost finished its first dose and despite regrets, the hard work does not stop.