Cuba could be at the peak of the current wave of infections

Print
Star InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar Inactive
 
Rating:
( 0 Rating )

Cuba podría estar en el pico de la actual ola de contagios

Cuban mathematicians and epidemiologists estimate that the country could be entering the peak of the current wave of COVID-19 infections. According to forecast models presented this Tuesday during the weekly meeting of the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of the Republic, Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, with experts from the Ministry of Public Health (MINSAP) who have guided science and technological innovation in the fight against the coronavirus for almost two years.

The dean of the Faculty of Mathematics and Computing of the University of Havana, Raúl Guinovart Díaz, considered that the forecasts are more encouraging than in past weeks, although the situation we are experiencing is still complex.

Even though he acknowledged that the issue of the models could be controversial, he specified that they are indicating that we are entering the peak of the current wave of infections, to decrease later.

Díaz-Canel commented that, compared to what is happening in the world after the expansion of the omicron variant, the growth of cases in Cuba has been slower, the slope has been smoother. "We have remained for several days," he recalled, "between 3,000 and 3,500 cases per day, when in other forecasts we should have been over 6,000 patients per day."

“The report of daily cases is getting closer to the medical discharges that are granted,” Guinovart Díaz said, “which seems to indicate that the epidemic will be controlled, according to the data. In addition, growth has slowed in recent days. We must be very attentive to the situation, but the trends show some control of the epidemic in the coming weeks.

This criterion was shared by Professor Pedro Mas Bermejo, vice president of the Cuban Society of Hygiene and Epidemiology, who pointed out that the logistics forecast, prepared by the University of Sancti Spíritus and presented by Guinovart Díaz, has been followed in the last 20 days, “and the concordance has been very close”.

As long as we continue to apply the booster dose and increase the percentage of vaccinated people, "the control that is being considered will be possible.

"I dare to say that we are in a stage of disease control, all the data and comparisons with the world lead us to that idea, he said.

Dr. José Raúl de Armas Fernández, head of the Department of Communicable Diseases of the MINSAP, expressed the opinion that territories such as Granma and Santiago de Cuba have not yet reached the number of confirmed cases that they should reach, they are below the transmission levels that today we have in the country.Nevertheless, this would never lead to a big spike or to go away from the forecasts presented. “I agree —he asserted— that we are entering a plateau moment to start the descent, which will guarantee us to continue advancing in the reinforcement”.

Vaccination cannot be stopped

92.5 percent of Cuba's vaccinable population —does not include, for example, children under two years of age, those who live outside the island, or those with terminal illnesses—, or already have their scheme of complete vaccination, Ileana Morales Suárez, director of Science and Technological Innovation of the Minsap, informed when updating on the vaccination strategy.

Meanwhile, booster vaccination goes to 45.5 percent, with the highest numbers in Havana (1,150,763 people), Santiago de Cuba (406,412) and Holguín (330,694). The Sovereign Plus and Sovereign 02 vaccines, as well as Abdala, are being applied throughout the nation. In addition, although still in a clinical trial, it is being reinforced with Soberana 01 and Mambisa in smaller numbers.

He said that the four million booster doses have already been passed, and the delivery of vaccines to the provinces continues to be accomplished to complete the campaign this month.

That's where Mambisa comes too

Dr. Gerardo Guillén Nieto, director of Biomedical Research of the CIGB, explained that Mambisa is in two clinical studies in Phase 2: one as a reinforcement to 2,220 individuals who received the three doses of Abdala; and another, also as reinforcement, but in convalescent people, which is still receiving volunteers at the Hermanos Ameijeiras hospital in Havana; the Raúl Díaz polyclinic, in Pinar del Río; and in the Manuel Ascunce hospital, in Camagüey. The researcher explained that “in the Phase 1 study of the Mambisa vaccine candidate, with 120 individuals, three nasal administration devices were tested, all with very good results, and one that we have the capacity to produce was selected; therefore, we guarantee sustainability in the vaccine”.

In this phase, he explained, the success criterion of the vaccine candidate was that it increased the titers of specific IgG antibodies by four times or more; however, it increased them 15 times. Once again, the ability of the nasal administration route to induce an immune response at the systemic level was demonstrated, with antibodies in the blood and in the mucosa, which is where the SARS-CoV-2 virus enters the body, he said. Once we conclude the two studies in Phase 2, Mambisa will be presented to Cecmed, to obtain authorization for emergency use. This is one of the 11 vaccines administered by the nasal route that are being studied in the world to combat COVID-19.